USD Index could rise 5% as risk aversion intensifies further – MUFG

Economists at MUFG Bank maintain their view of renewed US dollar strength after another inflation shock means another blow for risk.

Hot inflation reinforces the case for a stronger USD

“The latest NFP and US CPI reports have pushed back expectations for a dovish Fed policy pivot.”

“We are more confident now that the Fed will continue to deliver faster hikes through the rest of this year.”

“The hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations and intensifying fears over a hard landing for the global economy supports our outlook for an even stronger USD.”

“Based on our current year-end forecasts, we see scope for the dollar to advance by about 5% on a DXY basis as risk aversion intensifies further.”