US: Inflation around or slightly below zero might not weaken the Dollar further – Commerzbank

The highlight of the US data calendar this week is the December inflation data due to be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The Dollar could stay resilient even with a soft reading, in the opinion of Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank. 

Consumer prices not expected to have risen in December

“The majority of analysts polled by Bloomberg expect that consumer prices will not have risen in December. If that turns out to be correct, we could bet on everything being priced in, with the Dollar not coming under pressure. However, I am not so sure.”

“If there is no sufficiently reliable model for inflation development, there is no model for allocating probabilities.”

“I am not so certain whether in an environment such as that an inflation reading around or slightly below zero might not weaken the Dollar further after all.”