Net USD long positions moved lower last week – Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank assess the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report:

"Net USD long positions moved lower last week. That said, there has been little net change in USD longs since late March. While the recovery in sentiment after the recent bank jitters has weighed on the safe-haven USD, the greenback is again finding support from expectations about further policy tightening from the Fed."

"Net EUR long positions surged last week to their highest levels since mid-February as the market reacted to hawkish commentary from ECB officials."

"Net short GBP speculators’ positions dropped to their lowest level since March 2022 reflecting an improvement in sentiment linked to a slew of less bad UK economic data. The May BoE policy meeting is in view. The market is fully priced for another 25-bps rate hike and sees risk of additional tightening in the coming months."

"JPY net short positions saw little change having increased the previous week. They remain well above the levels held earlier in the year as speculators have lost faith in the view that the BoJ may soon announce a less accommodative monetary policy.

"CHF net shorts remain choppy, dropping back last week. Last month the issues surrounding Credit Suisse and the treatment of AT1 paper complicated the CHF’s safe-haven status."

"Speculators’ net short CAD positions edged a little lower having increased notably in late March, oil prices and the signalled pause in policy from the BoC are in view. Net AUD short positions moved higher again last week. That said, talk of another RBA rate hike could see a reversal of this direction in the next set of data."