S&P 500 Index could test 200-DMA at 3975 on a break below 4052/48 – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 remains trapped in a very tight range above its 63-Day Moving Average at 4052/48, with a break below here needed to confirm a rejection of key resistance at 4195 and a renewed fall, analysts at Credit Suisse report.

Looking for a top to form beneath the 4195 YTD high

“With daily MACD momentum having turned lower, we still think the broader risk is shifting towards a ‘risk off’ phase and our bias stays lower for an eventual break below 4052/48 to confirm a near-term top for a fall to test the 200-DMA, now at 3975.”

“Above 4195 YTD high would now be seen to mark an important break higher, especially give the extreme net short in positioning to clear the way for a test of the summer 2022 high and 61.8% retracement of the entire 2022 fall at 4312/4325.”