The RBA is approaching the end of its hiking cycle – Rabobank

The RBA delivered another rate hike in June to take the cash rate to a fresh 11-year high of 4.10%. Economists at Rabobank maintain their call that there will be just one more hike this year to reach a terminal cash rate of 4.35% and that the most likely timing for that hike to occur is the August meeting.

Next – and final – rate hike to occur at the August RBA Board meeting

We maintain our call on a terminal cash rate of 4.35% in Australia.

We expect the next (and final) rate hike to occur at the August RBA Board meeting.  

Recent labour market data justifies higher policy rates, but the economy is largely unfolding in line with RBA forecasts.

The soft monthly CPI figure for May increases our comfort that the RBA is close to the end of the hiking cycle.

One further hike would be consistent with the ‘least regrets’ approach of other central banks, while also accounting for slowing private demand.