EUR/USD: Signs of US disinflation to lift the pair toward 1.15 – ING

EUR/USD now has a clear bias towards 1.15 over the coming months and quarters, economists at ING report.

US disinflation undermines the Dollar

Strong signs of US disinflation and bullish steepening of the US yield curve should be a EUR/USD positive. Positioning and Rest Of World growth prospects may not trigger the kind of 8% Dollar drop seen last Nov-Dec, but the Dollar should still decline.

One last hike from the Fed, plus two more hikes from the European Central Bank should keep rate differentials supportive of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD – 1M 1.11 3M 1.12 6M 1.15 12M 1.18