AUD/USD: A big beat in NFP may accelerate move towards the YTD low of 0.65 – TDS

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just kept the official interest rate unchanged at 4.1%.  Today's dovish surprise is sending AUD lower. Economists at TD Securities analyze Aussie outlook.

RBA trying to engineer a soft landing 

The RBA chose to pause again, leaving the cash rate target at 4.1%. The Bank is now recalibrating its focus towards the pursuit of a ‘soft landing’ given its more pessimistic assessment of the economic outlook. However, the Bank is still leaving the option to hike on the table through the reinstatement of upside risks to inflation and isn't calling it quits. 

After sitting in the middle of the 0.66-0.69 range, today's dovish surprise is likely to send AUD lower, possibly retesting the support of the 0.65 lows in end May.

The repricing of the terminal lower and China's outlook are likely to weigh on the AUD in the near-term. 

China data and growth perceptions are likely to overtake as key drivers for the currency post RBA and the lack of concrete stimulus details and disappointing Chinese data add to bearish AUD momentum. 

Another risk event for AUD for the remainder of the week will be the July Payrolls. A big beat in NFP may accelerate AUD's move towards the YTD low of 0.65.