EUR/USD seen lower at 1.08 by year-end, 1.05 by end-2024 – ABN Amro

Economists at ABN Amro expect the EUR/USD pair to move downward over the coming months.

Speculative positions in the EUR are extremely large

We forecast a modest upside of the US Dollar versus the Euro for the following reasons. We expect rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB next year. Whereas most of the Fed rate cuts we foresee are anticipated by the market, our expected rate cuts for the ECB are not. If our views play out Euro should weaken. Moreover, the speculative positions in the EUR are extremely large. 

Our forecasts are 1.08 (end 2023) and 1.05 end 2024.