USD/RUB: Ruble depreciation to continue at a steady pace – Commerzbank

The Russian Ruble is likely to depreciate medium-term due to the declining current account surplus, in the view of economists at Commerzbank.

Current account fundamentals negative

We now forecast USD/RUB at 120.00 by end-2024.

Residents looking to dollarise their assets probably have structural motivations, not interest rate arbitrage motivation. 

We expect Ruble depreciation to continue at a steady pace.

Official data acknowledge that the current account surplus has narrowed by 73% YoY year-to-date. This is the main negative fundamental driver of the exchange rate.

Source: Commerzbank Research