EUR/GBP to appreciate in the coming quarters – Commerzbank

Scepticism about whether the BoE will ultimately act restrictively enough is likely to continue to weigh on the Pound in the near term, economists at Commerzbank report.

Sterling might be able to recover slightly if the inflation outlook were to improve significantly

Of course, it is still possible that the BoE will be right in the end and that inflation will fall significantly in the coming months. At present, however, the dominant concern in the market is that the BoE is acting too slowly and too cautiously and will not get a grip on the inflation problem. The Pound is likely to continue to suffer from this.

If the inflation outlook were to improve significantly Sterling might be able to recover slightly. At that point, the expectation that the BoE will cut its key rate due to the weak economy will then probably increase. At the same time, as we do not expect the ECB to cut its key rate, we expect EUR/GBP to appreciate in the coming quarters.