EUR/USD to move towards the 1.0675/1.0700 area unless US jobs surprise on the upside – ING

EUR/USD fluctuates above 1.06. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.

The market has closed the door on further ECB hikes

The European Central Bank's Isabel Schnabel said the ECB cannot close the door on further rate hikes. However, the market has priced out any further rate hikes and is firmly looking at the 2024 easing cycle. This means that despite lower US rates recently, two-year EUR:USD swap differentials have not narrowed meaningfully and probably explains why EUR/USD is struggling to take advantage of the softer Dollar environment. 

Given global conditions, however, we would favour EUR/USD towards the 1.0675/1.0700 today area unless US jobs surprise on the upside.