USD/JPY: A decline to 146.00 seems probable – UOB

In the opinion of UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia, USD/JPY could lose further ground and revisit the 146.00 zone in the next few weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: We expected USD to drop to 146.00 yesterday. Our expectation did not materialise as USD dropped to 146.21 and then rebounded strongly to 147.48. Downward pressure has eased with the rebound. Today, USD is likely to trade in a range, probably between 146.50 and 147.60. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (04 Dec), when USD was trading at 146.50, we indicated that the recent USD weakness has resumed. We also indicated that if USD “breaks below 146.00, the focus will shift to 145.05.” USD then dropped to 146.21 and rebounded. We continue to hold the same view for now. Overall, only a breach of 148.10 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would suggest that USD is not ready to break below 146.00.