USD/IDR: Sustained Rupiah strength likely to have to wait till external pressures recede – MUFG

In Indonesia, quick vote polling results show current Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has won the 2024 presidential election, avoiding run-off election uncertainty. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze Rupiah’s (IDR) outlook following election result.

Cautious on the USD/IDR

We remain cautious on the USD/IDR, keeping our forecast at 15,800 in Q1 2024 and 15,850 in Q2 2024. 

With Prabowo winning the presidential election in the first round, election uncertainty has somewhat eased. Still, we remain mindful of potential political transition risks stemming from the forming of a governing coalition among the different political parties and the appointment of key cabinet members.

Moreover, markets have further pared back expectations for US rate cuts this year following higher-than-expected US CPI data for January. Policy rate cuts by Bank Indonesia and sustained Rupiah strength against the US Dollar are likely to have to wait till external pressures recede.