EUR/USD: Risks are asymmetrically distributed, and more likely to be on the upside – Commerzbank

Thursday's data on Industrial Production and Retail Sales – which were weaker than expected – caused the Dollar to dip briefly. Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, anlayze the EUR/USD outlook.

Everything will be fine?

As long as the data keeps market expectations that ‘everything could be fine’ in the end, the Dollar should be able to defend its position and see only moderate movements through minor position adjustments. However, as soon as the currently prevailing positive picture starts to crack, the USD could quickly head in the opposite direction again. 

For me, the risks are therefore asymmetrically distributed at the moment, especially for any larger movements, and are more likely to be on the upside in EUR/USD.