USD/JPY: Any further gains could prompt renewed intervention in Japan – MUFG

Last week, USD/JPY moved back above the 150.00 level for the first time since November. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

GDP data if anything could encourage intervention

We don’t see the weaker-than-expected real GDP data as altering the outlook for the Yen. Indeed, quite the opposite it will probably reinforce the determination of the MoF to limit further JPY depreciation. At the same time, the BoJ will likely view the GDP data as a consequence of the inflation shock and is unlikely to alter the prospects of a rate hike. 

Just like on the previous occasions when USD/JPY reached these levels, we see momentum fading but broader US Dollar strength that could continue near term may mean intervention is required to stall the move.