DXY: PCE must exceed forecasts or Euro inflation must underwhelm for the uptrend to continue – SocGen

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 2.4% since January on repricing of Fed cuts from six to three. Economists at Société Générale analyze Greenback’s outlook.

Headline +0.3%, Core +0.4%

PCE inflation is the next signpost on Thursday. We forecast headline +0.3% (2.4% YoY) and Core +0.4% (2.8% YoY). The spotlight will be on Core services after the 0.8% MoM spike in equivalent CPI two weeks ago.

The repricing of Fed cuts from six to three since January has boosted the DXY by 2.4% over the past eight weeks but doubts over sustained upswing have emerged following the failure to orbit 105.00 after CPI and PPI. PCE must exceed forecasts or Euro inflation must underwhelm for the trend to continue.

Feb 27, 2024

United States Housing Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.1% below forecasts (0.3%) in December

RBNZ Preview: Forecast from eight major banks, slight chance of a hike, focus on projections

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, February 28 at 01:00 GMT and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations as forecast by the economists and researchers of eight major banks.