US Dollar will continue to rise if the Fed gives the impression that even June rate cut is shaky – Commerzbank

There will be no interest rate cut by the Fed before June. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how the Fed’s stance could impact the US Dollar.

Nothing before June

I think it is now even a little less certain than before when the Fed will start to cut rates. If inflationary pressure remains high over the next few months, it could even consider a first cut later, in July or even September. Intuitively, a meeting at which the new forecasts, including the dot plots (interest rate expectations of the FOMC members) that underpin the decision, are published at the same time would make sense for a first rate cut, i.e. either June or September. But it is quite conceivable that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will prepare the market for the turnaround in good time.

Tuesday I would have said to the Fed: I know what you're going to do this summer. Namely, cut the key interest rate. Today I'm a little less sure. I'm all the more curious to see what kind of statement and forecasts the Fed will publish next week. If they give the impression that even June is shaky, the Dollar will continue to rise.