UK GDP on track to surprise BoE to upside in Q1 – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities assess the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the UK.

Quarterly GDP on track to surprise the MPC to the upside

"UK GDP rose 0.1% m/m in February, following an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m expansion in January. While both hospital and food services fell sharply, as we expected, a notable 6.5% m/m surge in “land transport services and transport services via pipelines” coupled with a 1.5% m/m rise in telecommunications were enough to drive up services 0.1% m/m. Moreover, a sharp 1.2% m/m increase in manufacturing output also helped drive the upside surprise, largely on the back of transport equipment, which rose by 3.7% m/m."

"Overall, the better than projected increase in February together with a 0.1ppts upside revision to the January data leaves quarterly GDP on track to surprise the MPC to the upside in Q1 (BoE: 0.1% q/q)."

Apr 12, 2024

ECB to cut policy rates at each and every meeting from June onwards – ABN Amro

Nick Kounis, Head of Financial Markets and Sustainability Research at ABN Amro, notes that the European Central Bank (ECB) President asserted that while the Governing Council would be ‘data dependent’ it was ‘not Fed dependent.’ ECB will cut policy rates at each and every meeting from June on wards "Overall, we think the ECB’s communication is consistent with a start of a rate cut cycle at the June Governing Council meeting.

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Apr 12, 2024

ECB gave some strong hints that a June cut is forthcoming – Rabobank

Reviewing the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy announcements following the April meeting, Rabobank analysts noted that the ECB gave some strong hints that there will be a reduction in the policy rate in June.

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