6 Oct 2014
RBA widely expected to leave policy unchanged - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - The RBA is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, notes the FX Strategy Team at RBS, adding that they favour selling AUD/USD rallies into the 0.8850-0.8900 range.
Key Quotes
"The RBA meet and are widely expected to leave policy unchanged. Of greatest interest may be their characterization of the currency, which they described as “above most estimates of fair value” at their 2 September meeting but which has since declined by more than 6% versus the USD."
"However, with commodity prices having also fallen in that period, we suspect that they may maintain their comments about the currency being overvalued. A weakening China outlook, the prospect of tighter macroprudential policy domestically and our constructive USD outlook leave us favouring selling AUD/USD rallies into the 0.8850-0.8900 range."
Key Quotes
"The RBA meet and are widely expected to leave policy unchanged. Of greatest interest may be their characterization of the currency, which they described as “above most estimates of fair value” at their 2 September meeting but which has since declined by more than 6% versus the USD."
"However, with commodity prices having also fallen in that period, we suspect that they may maintain their comments about the currency being overvalued. A weakening China outlook, the prospect of tighter macroprudential policy domestically and our constructive USD outlook leave us favouring selling AUD/USD rallies into the 0.8850-0.8900 range."