28 Nov 2014
UK Manufacturing PMI forecast – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The RBS Research Team forecast the UK Manufacturing PMI to edge down to 52.2 in November, and anticipates a further moderation in UK economy growth.
Key Quotes
“The UK manufacturing PMI rebounded to 53.2 in October from 51.5 in September. October’s rise followed declines in four of the previous five months by a combined 5.4 points.”
“We are sceptical that October’s outturn signals the start of a renewed uptrend. Rather, the risks to the UK economy are more obviously to the downside – though we continue to expect a further moderation in growth not a collapse.“
“European survey data does not suggest any strong directional impulse in November: the ‘flash’ euro area manufacturing PMI was fractionally lower: 50.4 in November from 50.6 in October – the survey has essentially flat-lined since late summer.”
“Other European survey data tended to be a little firmer, notably the German IFO, but it is too soon to conclude that economic activity is levelling-out.”
“Overall, we judge that moderate downside risks predominate and forecast the UK manufacturing PMI to edge down to 52.2 in November, leaving it marginally above its long-run average.”
Key Quotes
“The UK manufacturing PMI rebounded to 53.2 in October from 51.5 in September. October’s rise followed declines in four of the previous five months by a combined 5.4 points.”
“We are sceptical that October’s outturn signals the start of a renewed uptrend. Rather, the risks to the UK economy are more obviously to the downside – though we continue to expect a further moderation in growth not a collapse.“
“European survey data does not suggest any strong directional impulse in November: the ‘flash’ euro area manufacturing PMI was fractionally lower: 50.4 in November from 50.6 in October – the survey has essentially flat-lined since late summer.”
“Other European survey data tended to be a little firmer, notably the German IFO, but it is too soon to conclude that economic activity is levelling-out.”
“Overall, we judge that moderate downside risks predominate and forecast the UK manufacturing PMI to edge down to 52.2 in November, leaving it marginally above its long-run average.”