28 Nov 2014
Sterling: Upcoming Week - The Big Three - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities gave us an insight to the month ahead and year ending major data impacts from the UK.
Key Quotes:
“Manufacturing PMI (Mon 1 Dec): Markets are looking for the manufacturing PMI to edge a little lower again in Nov, slipping from 53.2 to 53.0. While the EZ flash PMI data was disappointing, the domestic CBI data looked a little better and last month’s Markit report saw new orders bouncing back to a 3-month high, so we see upside risks and could see the PMI edging a bit higher again in Nov”.
“Services PMI (Wed 3 Dec): We’re in line with consensus in looking for the services PMI to edge a few tenths higher to 56.5 in Nov after sliding more than 4pts lower over the last two months. Retail activity had been softer earlier in the autumn, but indications are that consumer spending is bouncing back again. But the PMI will likely remain well below its highs from earlier this year, as the economic outlook is increasingly uncertain due to downside risks from the Eurozone”.
“Autumn Fiscal Statement (Wed 3 Dec): With the budget deficit failing to narrow in the face of decent GDP growth, it is unlikely that we will see any significant fiscal measures announced by the Chancellor in the Autumn Statement. The headline measures should include an increase to planned investment in the road and rail networks but little in the way of pre-election giveaways. The OBR will update the fiscal forecasts, and has already stated that income tax revenue will have to be revised lower due to the low pickup in earnings, while corporation tax and stamp duty are also running below target. We will be watching closely to see if there is an increase in required gilt/bill issuance due to the poor fiscal data”.
Key Quotes:
“Manufacturing PMI (Mon 1 Dec): Markets are looking for the manufacturing PMI to edge a little lower again in Nov, slipping from 53.2 to 53.0. While the EZ flash PMI data was disappointing, the domestic CBI data looked a little better and last month’s Markit report saw new orders bouncing back to a 3-month high, so we see upside risks and could see the PMI edging a bit higher again in Nov”.
“Services PMI (Wed 3 Dec): We’re in line with consensus in looking for the services PMI to edge a few tenths higher to 56.5 in Nov after sliding more than 4pts lower over the last two months. Retail activity had been softer earlier in the autumn, but indications are that consumer spending is bouncing back again. But the PMI will likely remain well below its highs from earlier this year, as the economic outlook is increasingly uncertain due to downside risks from the Eurozone”.
“Autumn Fiscal Statement (Wed 3 Dec): With the budget deficit failing to narrow in the face of decent GDP growth, it is unlikely that we will see any significant fiscal measures announced by the Chancellor in the Autumn Statement. The headline measures should include an increase to planned investment in the road and rail networks but little in the way of pre-election giveaways. The OBR will update the fiscal forecasts, and has already stated that income tax revenue will have to be revised lower due to the low pickup in earnings, while corporation tax and stamp duty are also running below target. We will be watching closely to see if there is an increase in required gilt/bill issuance due to the poor fiscal data”.