1 Dec 2014
AUD/USD prints 0.8460 lows through interbank trade
FXStreet (Bali) - AUD/USD has been under heavy pressure in early Asia, with an interbank-led sell-off in Sydney taking the rate to a new low circa 0.8460 before a modest recovery towards 0.8475 with retail platforms now operating.
The AUD/USD market remains caught long following the latest positive inputs for the Aussie, including a Chinese rate cut and solid Capex figures. With USD/JPY bullish momentum picking up steam once again, last at 118.76, it will make it even harder for the AUD/USD to produce any sustainable bounce. If anything, the latest sell-offs despite positive AUD news is the ultimate prove that the market remains with an unambiguously bearish sentiment.
AUD/USD's pace of depreciation should slow down, at least, until the RBA monetary policy outcome - due Tuesday - is delivered, although with expectations of any policy change currently running very low, additional selling ahead of the Central Bank risk event should not be ruled out either. It will be the last RBA policy meeting until February.
Technically Jim Lnglands, Founder at FXCharts, notes: "Friday’s close on the monthly Ichimoku chart, below the base of the cloud (0.8535) – the first close under here since March 2009 -potentially has very bearish implications which could eventually take the Aud quite a lot lower. If 0.8480 does give way, look for decent bids to hold the Aud, in the short term, at the base of the major channel at the 0.8450 area (monthly chart below). A break of this would see a steeper decline towards the June 2010 low at 0.8315 and then to the May 2010 lows at 0.8066. Eventually I think we are heading a fair bit lower than that and still look for 0.6000, albeit a couple of years down the track. A monthly close back above the neckline, now at 0.8800 would invalidate that view, but this is beginning to look increasingly distant. We shall see."
The AUD/USD market remains caught long following the latest positive inputs for the Aussie, including a Chinese rate cut and solid Capex figures. With USD/JPY bullish momentum picking up steam once again, last at 118.76, it will make it even harder for the AUD/USD to produce any sustainable bounce. If anything, the latest sell-offs despite positive AUD news is the ultimate prove that the market remains with an unambiguously bearish sentiment.
AUD/USD's pace of depreciation should slow down, at least, until the RBA monetary policy outcome - due Tuesday - is delivered, although with expectations of any policy change currently running very low, additional selling ahead of the Central Bank risk event should not be ruled out either. It will be the last RBA policy meeting until February.
Technically Jim Lnglands, Founder at FXCharts, notes: "Friday’s close on the monthly Ichimoku chart, below the base of the cloud (0.8535) – the first close under here since March 2009 -potentially has very bearish implications which could eventually take the Aud quite a lot lower. If 0.8480 does give way, look for decent bids to hold the Aud, in the short term, at the base of the major channel at the 0.8450 area (monthly chart below). A break of this would see a steeper decline towards the June 2010 low at 0.8315 and then to the May 2010 lows at 0.8066. Eventually I think we are heading a fair bit lower than that and still look for 0.6000, albeit a couple of years down the track. A monthly close back above the neckline, now at 0.8800 would invalidate that view, but this is beginning to look increasingly distant. We shall see."