5 Dec 2014
Payrolls consensus might match results - BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Market Research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, notes that the ADP employment gain of 208k suggests that the 230k consensus for payrolls might be correct.
Key Quotes
“There is certainly reason for optimism today with most other labour market data indicating another healthy gain in non-farm payrolls in November. The one negative element of uncertainty is the cold snap that impacted the northeast and may dampen the jobs total. But the ADP employment gain of 208k suggests the 230k consensus for today could be about right.”
“The Beige Book is also worth a mention given that this week it reported that “employment gains were widespread” – that was certainly the most upbeat assessment of the labour market in a Beige Book since before the financial crisis.”
“There has also been reports of strong seasonal hiring to cater for the spending increase around the holiday period. With US consumers now holding extra cash in their pockets due to a further 20% drop in retail gasoline prices since the start of October, increased spending into year-end seems very plausible to us.”
“Still, in terms of market reaction, the dollar is likely to be most sensitive to any changes in the average earnings picture. Annual hourly earnings in the private sector has actually eased from 2.5% in August to 2.2% in October – we expect this to be close to 3% by mid-2015 and hence this measure should start to drift higher.”
Key Quotes
“There is certainly reason for optimism today with most other labour market data indicating another healthy gain in non-farm payrolls in November. The one negative element of uncertainty is the cold snap that impacted the northeast and may dampen the jobs total. But the ADP employment gain of 208k suggests the 230k consensus for today could be about right.”
“The Beige Book is also worth a mention given that this week it reported that “employment gains were widespread” – that was certainly the most upbeat assessment of the labour market in a Beige Book since before the financial crisis.”
“There has also been reports of strong seasonal hiring to cater for the spending increase around the holiday period. With US consumers now holding extra cash in their pockets due to a further 20% drop in retail gasoline prices since the start of October, increased spending into year-end seems very plausible to us.”
“Still, in terms of market reaction, the dollar is likely to be most sensitive to any changes in the average earnings picture. Annual hourly earnings in the private sector has actually eased from 2.5% in August to 2.2% in October – we expect this to be close to 3% by mid-2015 and hence this measure should start to drift higher.”