12 Dec 2014
USD to be the outperformer in 2015 – HSBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at HSBC anticipate the USD to be the outperformer in 2015, while sharing their forecast for the different currency pairs.
Key Quotes
“In G10, we now expect USD-JPY to finish 2015 at 128 compared to 122 previously. EUR-USD is now anticipated at 1.15 rather than 1.19. Both these revisions take account of our concern that there is a risk, however small, of substantial declines in the JPY and EUR. We make no additional change to GBP-USD forecasts having recently revised lower our year-end 2015 projection to 1.48 (see ABC of further GBP weakness). The AUD, NZD and NOK are also trimmed, partly in response to the unexpectedly sharp decline in global commodity prices.”
“In Asia, we now look for CNY to end 2015 at 6.22 rather than 6.10, and there is scope for this level to be exceeded during Q1 15. Increased volatility is also likely to be more evident as the liberalisation process continues. Beyond China, the revisions are relatively modest given we were already cautious on the region against the USD. Nonetheless, here too the pattern is for even greater USD strength than before.”
“We were bullish on the USD in 2014 and it proved to be the best performing currency. For 2015, the pattern is clear. We once again expect the USD to be the dominant performer, outstripping all comers.”
Key Quotes
“In G10, we now expect USD-JPY to finish 2015 at 128 compared to 122 previously. EUR-USD is now anticipated at 1.15 rather than 1.19. Both these revisions take account of our concern that there is a risk, however small, of substantial declines in the JPY and EUR. We make no additional change to GBP-USD forecasts having recently revised lower our year-end 2015 projection to 1.48 (see ABC of further GBP weakness). The AUD, NZD and NOK are also trimmed, partly in response to the unexpectedly sharp decline in global commodity prices.”
“In Asia, we now look for CNY to end 2015 at 6.22 rather than 6.10, and there is scope for this level to be exceeded during Q1 15. Increased volatility is also likely to be more evident as the liberalisation process continues. Beyond China, the revisions are relatively modest given we were already cautious on the region against the USD. Nonetheless, here too the pattern is for even greater USD strength than before.”
“We were bullish on the USD in 2014 and it proved to be the best performing currency. For 2015, the pattern is clear. We once again expect the USD to be the dominant performer, outstripping all comers.”