24 Jun 2013
Flash: What now for the EUR? – DB & Commerzbank
FXstreet.com (London) - The EUR/USD has so far suffered a loss of 432 pips since the FOMC statements last week.
Jim Reid, Macro Strategy at Deutsche Bank, said volatile markets could keep the Fed on hold for longer than they and the market now think. He continues to expect a difficult few weeks for risk followed by a realisation that the pace of tapering will actually be slower than flagged on Wednesday which in turn will eventually provide some good buying opportunities before the summer is out.
Karen Jones at Commezbank is seeing that the EUR/USD had sold off aggressively last week, backing away from 1.3427/46, the 200 week ma and the 2011-2013 resistance line. She said that this is key resistance and failure here is viewed as negative. “Attention is on support offered by the 55 and 200 day moving average at 1.3080/73”. Currently they would allow for a rebound from here, but suspect that this will struggle to clear 1.3250. She said the Elliott wave count is suggesting we will see a pullback to 1.3055, adding, that below 1.3073/55 will trigger losses to 1.2843/1.2796 support line, which guards the 1.2740 April low.
Jim Reid, Macro Strategy at Deutsche Bank, said volatile markets could keep the Fed on hold for longer than they and the market now think. He continues to expect a difficult few weeks for risk followed by a realisation that the pace of tapering will actually be slower than flagged on Wednesday which in turn will eventually provide some good buying opportunities before the summer is out.
Karen Jones at Commezbank is seeing that the EUR/USD had sold off aggressively last week, backing away from 1.3427/46, the 200 week ma and the 2011-2013 resistance line. She said that this is key resistance and failure here is viewed as negative. “Attention is on support offered by the 55 and 200 day moving average at 1.3080/73”. Currently they would allow for a rebound from here, but suspect that this will struggle to clear 1.3250. She said the Elliott wave count is suggesting we will see a pullback to 1.3055, adding, that below 1.3073/55 will trigger losses to 1.2843/1.2796 support line, which guards the 1.2740 April low.