12 Jan 2015
Eurozone GDP might grow by 2.1% in 2016 – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Team forecasts the euro economy GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016, way above consensus (bloombger 1.1% and 1.5% respectively), further anticipating average inflation to remain in the negative territory in 2015.
Key Quotes
“Our outlook for the euro economy in 2015 deviates considerably from consensus both in terms of activity and inflation. First, we expect the recovery to gain momentum as private consumption is supported by the oil price drop, business sentiment has started to improve as uncertainty has lightened, while a number of headwinds are fading mainly due to policy initiatives.”
“Based on this we expect GDP growth will be 1.5% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016, which is above the Bloomberg consensus of 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively.“
“At the same time, we look for falling prices during most of 2015 primarily as a result of the sharp decline in the oil price but also as core and food price inflation are low in a historical perspective.”
“In 2015, we expect average inflation will be negative at -0.1%, which is much below consensus expectations that prices will increase by 0.6%. In 2016, inflation should rebound as the oil price is set to increase.”
“Core inflation should also slowly increase as stronger growth supports wage pressure and reduces second round effects.”
Key Quotes
“Our outlook for the euro economy in 2015 deviates considerably from consensus both in terms of activity and inflation. First, we expect the recovery to gain momentum as private consumption is supported by the oil price drop, business sentiment has started to improve as uncertainty has lightened, while a number of headwinds are fading mainly due to policy initiatives.”
“Based on this we expect GDP growth will be 1.5% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016, which is above the Bloomberg consensus of 1.1% and 1.5%, respectively.“
“At the same time, we look for falling prices during most of 2015 primarily as a result of the sharp decline in the oil price but also as core and food price inflation are low in a historical perspective.”
“In 2015, we expect average inflation will be negative at -0.1%, which is much below consensus expectations that prices will increase by 0.6%. In 2016, inflation should rebound as the oil price is set to increase.”
“Core inflation should also slowly increase as stronger growth supports wage pressure and reduces second round effects.”