13 Jan 2015
The day ahead and key upcoming events - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained the key up coming events.
"Today we see China’s trade data, where a similar helping hand from oil is expected to push YoY import growth down to -6.2%.
"Given that we saw a -6.7% reading in November, risks might even be to the downside. Meanwhile, exports are seen +6.0% YoY, up from 4.7%, and the trade balance overall is expected at USD49.0bn in the month, slightly lower than the record of USD54.5bn last time round. Notably, while the surplus remains that large the pressure for the PBOC (or the market) to act on CNY will be moderated somewhat – though of course the downside is that oil’s fall is generally being matched by USD’s rise, and what China gains in cheaper imports it also loses in more expensive exports in nominal terms, so it’s not an entirely free lunch. CNY is steady around 6.20 at the moment, but has been as low as 6.23 within the last few weeks".
"In the UK we have CPI, seen +0.1% MoM and just 0.7% YoY, although core CPI is expected to edge a tick higher to a still-benign 1.3%. PPI, also out, will also see a plunge in input costs in YoY terms. Clearly the inflation trend does not argue the BOE need to be moving aggressively on rates".
"The US only has the NFIB small business survey. It’s always reliably curmudgeonly, but also gives a great read on how the under-reported, but crucial, SME sector is feeling: its reaction to lower oil prices will be of real interest".
"In Europe, the ECB’s Nowotny and the IFO’s Sinn are on a panel discussion. That could get interesting, as the former has just been quoted as saying the ECB needs to “take deflation risks seriously,” while the latter views this as “...just a pretext for QE, for hammering out a bailout programme for Southern Europe,” and indeed “There is no need for ECB action.” And that, as they say, is what makes a market, as well as revealing intra-EU harmony not quite on the level of Simon & Garfunkel".
"Today we see China’s trade data, where a similar helping hand from oil is expected to push YoY import growth down to -6.2%.
"Given that we saw a -6.7% reading in November, risks might even be to the downside. Meanwhile, exports are seen +6.0% YoY, up from 4.7%, and the trade balance overall is expected at USD49.0bn in the month, slightly lower than the record of USD54.5bn last time round. Notably, while the surplus remains that large the pressure for the PBOC (or the market) to act on CNY will be moderated somewhat – though of course the downside is that oil’s fall is generally being matched by USD’s rise, and what China gains in cheaper imports it also loses in more expensive exports in nominal terms, so it’s not an entirely free lunch. CNY is steady around 6.20 at the moment, but has been as low as 6.23 within the last few weeks".
"In the UK we have CPI, seen +0.1% MoM and just 0.7% YoY, although core CPI is expected to edge a tick higher to a still-benign 1.3%. PPI, also out, will also see a plunge in input costs in YoY terms. Clearly the inflation trend does not argue the BOE need to be moving aggressively on rates".
"The US only has the NFIB small business survey. It’s always reliably curmudgeonly, but also gives a great read on how the under-reported, but crucial, SME sector is feeling: its reaction to lower oil prices will be of real interest".
"In Europe, the ECB’s Nowotny and the IFO’s Sinn are on a panel discussion. That could get interesting, as the former has just been quoted as saying the ECB needs to “take deflation risks seriously,” while the latter views this as “...just a pretext for QE, for hammering out a bailout programme for Southern Europe,” and indeed “There is no need for ECB action.” And that, as they say, is what makes a market, as well as revealing intra-EU harmony not quite on the level of Simon & Garfunkel".