13 Jan 2015
AUD/USD might reach 0.76 by mid-2015 – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to the Research Team at Nomura, AUD/USD might continue to depreciate towards 0.78 levels in Q1 and 0.76 levels by mid-2015, and stabilise later as global economy picks up in the second half of 2015.
Key Quotes
“There is a chance that the RBA will not cut next year, which could support AUD. We believe that for the RBA to cut, a further deterioration in the labour market, likely an increase in the unemployment rate beyond 6.5%, or a weakening of domestic inflationary pressures would be needed.”
“Moreover, the further AUD depreciates, the less the RBA will feel pressured into cutting its policy rate, as it seems it views a lower exchange rate as the best channel to stimulate the non-mining sector, while it remains concerned about the housing market.”
“We believe that AUD/USD should continue to depreciate, mainly as a result of the strengthening of USD. However, the pace is likely to be much slower than in Q4. As such, we believe that AUD will reach 0.78 in Q1 and 0.76 by mid-2015, before stabilising as the global economy picks up in the second half of 2015.”
Key Quotes
“There is a chance that the RBA will not cut next year, which could support AUD. We believe that for the RBA to cut, a further deterioration in the labour market, likely an increase in the unemployment rate beyond 6.5%, or a weakening of domestic inflationary pressures would be needed.”
“Moreover, the further AUD depreciates, the less the RBA will feel pressured into cutting its policy rate, as it seems it views a lower exchange rate as the best channel to stimulate the non-mining sector, while it remains concerned about the housing market.”
“We believe that AUD/USD should continue to depreciate, mainly as a result of the strengthening of USD. However, the pace is likely to be much slower than in Q4. As such, we believe that AUD will reach 0.78 in Q1 and 0.76 by mid-2015, before stabilising as the global economy picks up in the second half of 2015.”