16 Jan 2015
Soft US data might lead USD/JPY towards 115 levels – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, notes that recent US retail sales came in soft and below market consensus, and predicts that a further weak data outcome might lead USD/JPY to head towards 115 levels.
Key Quotes
“Next week, BOJ may downgrade its near term price outlook due to recent oil price weakness. This downgrade comes just three months after the BOJ’s QQEII bazooka. The present monetary policy settings have aggressively supported JGB yield curve flattening. Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the BOJ, may again reiterate his 2% CPI target.”
“In addition, the ECB may announce sovereign QE but this is largely factored in by markets. EUR/USD may then rise after the announcement.”
“Recent US economic indicators were largely below market expectations, particularly non-farm payrolls and retail sales, weakening USD/JPY.”
“Forthcoming US data may support further USD/JPY selling if US data stays weak, leading USD/JPY to go as low as the 115-level.”
Key Quotes
“Next week, BOJ may downgrade its near term price outlook due to recent oil price weakness. This downgrade comes just three months after the BOJ’s QQEII bazooka. The present monetary policy settings have aggressively supported JGB yield curve flattening. Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the BOJ, may again reiterate his 2% CPI target.”
“In addition, the ECB may announce sovereign QE but this is largely factored in by markets. EUR/USD may then rise after the announcement.”
“Recent US economic indicators were largely below market expectations, particularly non-farm payrolls and retail sales, weakening USD/JPY.”
“Forthcoming US data may support further USD/JPY selling if US data stays weak, leading USD/JPY to go as low as the 115-level.”