19 Jan 2015
USD: Specs register a new record high - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - The specs positioning data for the week ending 13 Jan 2014 shows an increase in their overall net long USD positioning by USD3.1bn to register a new record high at USD40.8bn, notes ANZ FX Research Team.
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning by USD3.1bn to register a new record high at USD40.8bn. This is the third successive record long USD position (see Figure 3 in PDF). The increase in USD positioning was driven by selling across the board except for the AUD and MXN."
"This positioning data precedes the SNB decision to abandon the EUR/CHF floor on 15 January. According to the CFTC data, leveraged funds have been increasing their short bets against the CHF over the past 4 weeks to a record high of USD3.0bn just before the floor was abandoned (see Figure 18 in PDF). The next CFTC report is likely to show a purging of all short CHF positions."
"The biggest positioning change in the week ending 13 January was net selling in GBP totalling USD1.3bn after December inflation came in surprisingly low at 0.5% y/y. Net short positioning in GBP increased to USD1.7bn from USD0.3bn (see Figure 6 in PDF). The lower than expected inflation has cast doubt on the likelihood of the BoE hiking rates in 2015."
"Net selling in the EUR and JPY tied for second in place, totalling USD0.8bn each, with the former plagued by potential monetary easing by the ECB at their 22 January meeting. Though EUR net short positions are near record highs (see Figure 5 in PDF) and QE is fully priced, the SNB decision to abandon the EUR/CNF floor mean short EUR positions could get even more extreme."
"AUD bucked the trend for the week, registering net buying of USD0.3bn (see Figure 10 in PDF). Net short positions in AUD fell to USD2.8bn from USD3.0bn previously, likely on the back of carry seeking behaviour as US 10 year yields continues to fall."
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning by USD3.1bn to register a new record high at USD40.8bn. This is the third successive record long USD position (see Figure 3 in PDF). The increase in USD positioning was driven by selling across the board except for the AUD and MXN."
"This positioning data precedes the SNB decision to abandon the EUR/CHF floor on 15 January. According to the CFTC data, leveraged funds have been increasing their short bets against the CHF over the past 4 weeks to a record high of USD3.0bn just before the floor was abandoned (see Figure 18 in PDF). The next CFTC report is likely to show a purging of all short CHF positions."
"The biggest positioning change in the week ending 13 January was net selling in GBP totalling USD1.3bn after December inflation came in surprisingly low at 0.5% y/y. Net short positioning in GBP increased to USD1.7bn from USD0.3bn (see Figure 6 in PDF). The lower than expected inflation has cast doubt on the likelihood of the BoE hiking rates in 2015."
"Net selling in the EUR and JPY tied for second in place, totalling USD0.8bn each, with the former plagued by potential monetary easing by the ECB at their 22 January meeting. Though EUR net short positions are near record highs (see Figure 5 in PDF) and QE is fully priced, the SNB decision to abandon the EUR/CNF floor mean short EUR positions could get even more extreme."
"AUD bucked the trend for the week, registering net buying of USD0.3bn (see Figure 10 in PDF). Net short positions in AUD fell to USD2.8bn from USD3.0bn previously, likely on the back of carry seeking behaviour as US 10 year yields continues to fall."