21 Jan 2015
China GDP: Downward trend likely to resume in 2015 - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - While growth in China has stabilized in Q4, the downward trend is likely to resume in 2015, despite rebalancing appears to be taking place, notes Nomura.
Key Quotes
"China’s real Q4 GDP growth remained unchanged at 7.3% y-o-y from Q3 (Consensus: 7.2%; Nomura: 7.3%), resulting in annual growth of 7.4%."
"The data point to some signs of the economy rebalancing from investment to consumption. The contribution to GDP growth from consumption in 2014 was 51.2%, 3.0 percentage points more than in 2013."
"Of the higher frequency data, industrial production (IP) and retail sales growth rose in December; fixed asset investment (FAI) growth ticked down further."
"Our GDP growth forecast for 2015 remains 6.8% on robust service sector growth."
"We continue to expect one more 25bp interest rate cut in Q2 and 50bp of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in each quarter through 2015."
Key Quotes
"China’s real Q4 GDP growth remained unchanged at 7.3% y-o-y from Q3 (Consensus: 7.2%; Nomura: 7.3%), resulting in annual growth of 7.4%."
"The data point to some signs of the economy rebalancing from investment to consumption. The contribution to GDP growth from consumption in 2014 was 51.2%, 3.0 percentage points more than in 2013."
"Of the higher frequency data, industrial production (IP) and retail sales growth rose in December; fixed asset investment (FAI) growth ticked down further."
"Our GDP growth forecast for 2015 remains 6.8% on robust service sector growth."
"We continue to expect one more 25bp interest rate cut in Q2 and 50bp of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in each quarter through 2015."