21 Jan 2015
UK data preview: Wages might rise to 1.7% y/y – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team previews today’s UK data releases and the BOE minutes, further anticipating headline wages to rise to 1.7% y/y.
Key Quotes
“A busy day for UK data with the monthly unemployment data as well as BoE minutes. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 6.0% for the last three months, its longest stretch of no improvement since mid-2013. Our forecast for Nov is right on the knife’s edge between 5.9% and 6.0%, but the odds slightly favour an unchanged rate of 6.0%.”
”More focus though will likely be on wage growth, and there we’re on track for ex-bonus wages to climb to 1.9% Y/Y, and for headline wage to rise to 1.7% Y/Y.”
“For the BoE minutes, this will be the last set before the February QIR, and should give us a better idea of how the BoE will incorporate lower oil prices into its new forecasts. We look for the vote to remain at 7-2, but may see a little more dovishness from some of the majority on-hold voters, as lower inflation reduces the urgency to raise rates, and we may see some concern around the recovery becoming more unbalanced, with more consumer spending in place of less investment.”
Key Quotes
“A busy day for UK data with the monthly unemployment data as well as BoE minutes. The unemployment rate has remained unchanged at 6.0% for the last three months, its longest stretch of no improvement since mid-2013. Our forecast for Nov is right on the knife’s edge between 5.9% and 6.0%, but the odds slightly favour an unchanged rate of 6.0%.”
”More focus though will likely be on wage growth, and there we’re on track for ex-bonus wages to climb to 1.9% Y/Y, and for headline wage to rise to 1.7% Y/Y.”
“For the BoE minutes, this will be the last set before the February QIR, and should give us a better idea of how the BoE will incorporate lower oil prices into its new forecasts. We look for the vote to remain at 7-2, but may see a little more dovishness from some of the majority on-hold voters, as lower inflation reduces the urgency to raise rates, and we may see some concern around the recovery becoming more unbalanced, with more consumer spending in place of less investment.”