22 Jan 2015
USDCAD to reach 1.30 in the next few months - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - Shaun Osborne Chief, FX Strategist at TD Securities, notes that Wed's surge in USDCAD to the 1.24 area is broadly justified, adding that USDCAD will reach 1.30 in the next few months.
Key Quotes
"Our Fair Value snapshot for USDCAD based on spreads and terms of trade updates at the end of the day but, under the assumption that variables will not change that much over the balance of the session, our model suggests that today’s surge in USDCAD to the 1.24 area is broadly justified."
"There is little chance of a significant pullback in USDCAD absent a change in the direction of spreads (the Fed either falls off the policy normalization path or the BoC reverses course) or a rebound in the terms of trade (via a recovery in energy prices). Neither looks likely at this point."
"We are finalizing our FX forecasts upgrades at the moment (they will be published later this week) but, on current form and on the basis of our technical analysis, we think USDCAD will reach 1.30 in the next few months. Minor, corrective dips in USDCAD to the 1.21/1.22 area are a buy."
Key Quotes
"Our Fair Value snapshot for USDCAD based on spreads and terms of trade updates at the end of the day but, under the assumption that variables will not change that much over the balance of the session, our model suggests that today’s surge in USDCAD to the 1.24 area is broadly justified."
"There is little chance of a significant pullback in USDCAD absent a change in the direction of spreads (the Fed either falls off the policy normalization path or the BoC reverses course) or a rebound in the terms of trade (via a recovery in energy prices). Neither looks likely at this point."
"We are finalizing our FX forecasts upgrades at the moment (they will be published later this week) but, on current form and on the basis of our technical analysis, we think USDCAD will reach 1.30 in the next few months. Minor, corrective dips in USDCAD to the 1.21/1.22 area are a buy."