1 Jul 2013
Flash: NZD/USD upside risks surface – BNZ
FXstreet.com (New York) - “We revised down our NZD/USD forecasts on Friday, but identified upside risks from speculative positioning and supportive domestic fundamentals.” notes the BNZ Research Team.
The latest update of our new short-term valuation model shows NZD/USD ‘fair-value’ has declined 4 cents over the past month, to 0.7750-0.8150. The fact the currency is now approaching the bottom-end of this range suggests caution in expecting further sharp falls. For this week, general sentiment towards the USD will remain the key source of direction for the NZD/USD.
This is particularly so given the importance and focus on this week’s key US employment and manufacturing data. Outside of the US, tomorrow’s RBA meeting and today’s Chinese PMI manufacturing data (from 1pm NZT) will also be worth keeping an eye on for NZD watchers. “We expect the RBA to keep its cash rate steady at 2.75% and retain its easing bias. This sort of outcome would be unlikely to ruffle the feathers of the AUD or NZD.” the team adds.
The latest update of our new short-term valuation model shows NZD/USD ‘fair-value’ has declined 4 cents over the past month, to 0.7750-0.8150. The fact the currency is now approaching the bottom-end of this range suggests caution in expecting further sharp falls. For this week, general sentiment towards the USD will remain the key source of direction for the NZD/USD.
This is particularly so given the importance and focus on this week’s key US employment and manufacturing data. Outside of the US, tomorrow’s RBA meeting and today’s Chinese PMI manufacturing data (from 1pm NZT) will also be worth keeping an eye on for NZD watchers. “We expect the RBA to keep its cash rate steady at 2.75% and retain its easing bias. This sort of outcome would be unlikely to ruffle the feathers of the AUD or NZD.” the team adds.