26 Jan 2015
Too early to establish shorts in US rates – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - William O’Donnell of RBS, views that with the 1yr bull trend still intact, it is too early to establish shorts in US rates, and further cautions existing treasury longs to get flat on upticks as the long-term overbought signs show up.
Key Quotes
“One of our themes/trades has been in buying 5's/intermediates against the wings of the curve if you're a long term investor.”
“Long term technicals are still bullish for the belly with a return to FLAT in 2s5s10s possible over the coming months (expected 3-6mo range +52bp to FLAT). Support for the belly gets progressively stronger as we approach the low 50bp area. CONVICTION LEVEL: 2 (1=low, 5=high).”
“On Treasuries, long-term sellers/bears should remain patient but existing longs should use upticks to get flat since signs of long-term overbought conditions have emerged. However, with 1yr bull trends still intact, it is still too early to establish shorts in US rates.”
“Carney and Forbes of the BOE warned that UK rates could rise sooner than the markets believe and the German IFO survey was better than expected. Bunds have underperformed Treasury 10's by 2bp this morning and Crude Oil has extended losses this morning.”
“Our overnight US rates flows were fairly quiet with fast$ paying in 5's and real$ receiving in 10's. Overnight inter-dealer Treasury volume (4pm to 6am) fell back to 69% of the 10-day average volume for the overnight session.”
Key Quotes
“One of our themes/trades has been in buying 5's/intermediates against the wings of the curve if you're a long term investor.”
“Long term technicals are still bullish for the belly with a return to FLAT in 2s5s10s possible over the coming months (expected 3-6mo range +52bp to FLAT). Support for the belly gets progressively stronger as we approach the low 50bp area. CONVICTION LEVEL: 2 (1=low, 5=high).”
“On Treasuries, long-term sellers/bears should remain patient but existing longs should use upticks to get flat since signs of long-term overbought conditions have emerged. However, with 1yr bull trends still intact, it is still too early to establish shorts in US rates.”
“Carney and Forbes of the BOE warned that UK rates could rise sooner than the markets believe and the German IFO survey was better than expected. Bunds have underperformed Treasury 10's by 2bp this morning and Crude Oil has extended losses this morning.”
“Our overnight US rates flows were fairly quiet with fast$ paying in 5's and real$ receiving in 10's. Overnight inter-dealer Treasury volume (4pm to 6am) fell back to 69% of the 10-day average volume for the overnight session.”