13 Feb 2015
EUR steadies, may strengthen – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, views that EUR/USD might continue to consolidate or even strengthen in the weeks ahead, expecting the pair to bounce towards 1.17 on a break above 1.1445/50.
Key Quotes
“A look at the charts supports our impression that the EURUSD may continue to consolidate—or even strengthen—for a few more weeks.”
“Yesterday, we focused on the seasonal patterns in EURUSD which suggests that, after an initial move lower in the early part of the calendar year, we typically see EURUSD move sideways for a period of time.”
“Our technical work supports that theme, with the sideways movement in the EUR since the turn of the month—when we signaled a possible stabilization in the bear trend—relieving some of the bear pressure on the EUR and possibly opening the door to a modest bounce in spot in the next few weeks.”
“Tail risks around Greece remain hard to ignore but the market expects a benign outcome, as do we. And there is also the matter of the ECB QE programme getting underway next month, which we expect to ultimately weigh heavily on the EUR.”
“Still, while markets stabilize and investors ponder whether the Fed can raise rates while everyone else seems to be moving the other way, there is a window for the EUR to bounce; above 1.1445/50 may see the EUR rally extend near-term towards 1.17.”
Key Quotes
“A look at the charts supports our impression that the EURUSD may continue to consolidate—or even strengthen—for a few more weeks.”
“Yesterday, we focused on the seasonal patterns in EURUSD which suggests that, after an initial move lower in the early part of the calendar year, we typically see EURUSD move sideways for a period of time.”
“Our technical work supports that theme, with the sideways movement in the EUR since the turn of the month—when we signaled a possible stabilization in the bear trend—relieving some of the bear pressure on the EUR and possibly opening the door to a modest bounce in spot in the next few weeks.”
“Tail risks around Greece remain hard to ignore but the market expects a benign outcome, as do we. And there is also the matter of the ECB QE programme getting underway next month, which we expect to ultimately weigh heavily on the EUR.”
“Still, while markets stabilize and investors ponder whether the Fed can raise rates while everyone else seems to be moving the other way, there is a window for the EUR to bounce; above 1.1445/50 may see the EUR rally extend near-term towards 1.17.”