9 Jul 2013
EUR/GBP riding 0.8600
FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP is hovering over the 0.8600 handle.
In the absence of any key data, and since the market has already positioned itself post Carney and Draghai, EUR/GBP is sidelined. Today we will see some UK data. Alvin Pontoh, Strategist at TD Securities said they see two-sided risks around today’s industrial production report for May, where consensus is looking for a +0.2% M/M gain in total IP, and a +0.4% increase in manufacturing production. “The domestic data has been stronger in the UK, and the surveys and recent momentum are pointing to upside risks. But the global IP data for May has been weaker, and point to a small decline. With UK Q2 GDP estimates all over the map, today’s IP data (as well as the trade data) will give us a key piece of hard data in helping to focus GDP expectations, with another one coming in Friday with construction output”.
EUR/GBP upside preserved
Karen Jones, Chief Analyst at Commerzbank noted that EUR/GBP last week saw an erosion of the range high at 0.8597, this has not exactly been dynamic, and the market has stalled ahead of the 0.8636 April high. However, she said, while the market continues to hold over the 55 day ma at 0.85095 and the range lows at 0.8570, an upside bias is preserved. “The 0.8636 April high should act as a break point to the 0.8793/0.8814 highs seen earlier in the year.” She said failure at 0.8470, although less favoured, would re-target to the 0.8422 mid-May low and the 2012-13 support line at 0.8420.
In the absence of any key data, and since the market has already positioned itself post Carney and Draghai, EUR/GBP is sidelined. Today we will see some UK data. Alvin Pontoh, Strategist at TD Securities said they see two-sided risks around today’s industrial production report for May, where consensus is looking for a +0.2% M/M gain in total IP, and a +0.4% increase in manufacturing production. “The domestic data has been stronger in the UK, and the surveys and recent momentum are pointing to upside risks. But the global IP data for May has been weaker, and point to a small decline. With UK Q2 GDP estimates all over the map, today’s IP data (as well as the trade data) will give us a key piece of hard data in helping to focus GDP expectations, with another one coming in Friday with construction output”.
EUR/GBP upside preserved
Karen Jones, Chief Analyst at Commerzbank noted that EUR/GBP last week saw an erosion of the range high at 0.8597, this has not exactly been dynamic, and the market has stalled ahead of the 0.8636 April high. However, she said, while the market continues to hold over the 55 day ma at 0.85095 and the range lows at 0.8570, an upside bias is preserved. “The 0.8636 April high should act as a break point to the 0.8793/0.8814 highs seen earlier in the year.” She said failure at 0.8470, although less favoured, would re-target to the 0.8422 mid-May low and the 2012-13 support line at 0.8420.