17 Feb 2015
Key events coming up - Westpac
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation noted the days key events ahead.
Key Quotes:
"The highlight of Australia’s calendar this week is the release of the Feb RBA Board minutes at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The statement announcing the rate cut explained the move in terms of a slower growth outlook and subdued inflation. It also retained the familiar position that AUD “remains above most estimates of its fundamental value”, a claim now far more debatable than it was last year. The summary paragraph was largely backward-looking, so markets will be hoping for some guidance in the minutes on whether the RBA has an easing bias. We assume it does but it has not been made explicit.?
"NZD risk will be focused on the GlobalDairyTrade auction (London/NY session). It looks as though the volume on offer will be lower compared to both the last auction and this time last year (-50% y/y), which should continue to support dairy prices."
"China Jan property prices data will be released at 12:30am Syd/10:30am local. There is broad based weakness in property markets: Dec’s -91.4% in new markets was a small improvement from -100% in Oct, mostly due to a few cities shifting from price declines to unchanged."
"After a non-committal Jan statement, the market is expecting the Bank of Korea to leave rates unchanged at 2.0% though risks are to the downside given global easing. We will also see the Bank Indonesia policy decision. Given BI tightened ahead of the wave of central bank easing, it should keep rates on hold at 7.75%. In Singapore we have Jan non-oil exports as well as the second estimate of GDP. India observes a partial holiday, enough for there to be no INR spot."
"In Europe, we have UK Jan CPI. The Westpac forecast is in line with market consensus at 0.4% y/y. The impact of oil price deflation is significant, though inflation elsewhere is benign."
"The Germany Feb ZEW survey of investor sentiment should show signs of expectations improving; the market consensus is 55.0 from 48.4."
"In the US, the NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey has been showing waning momentum, which looks likely to continue in Feb to fall to 8.5. The Feb NAHB housing market index will also be released, with the market expecting a tick up to 58 (% of homebuilders seeing improved business)."
Key Quotes:
"The highlight of Australia’s calendar this week is the release of the Feb RBA Board minutes at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The statement announcing the rate cut explained the move in terms of a slower growth outlook and subdued inflation. It also retained the familiar position that AUD “remains above most estimates of its fundamental value”, a claim now far more debatable than it was last year. The summary paragraph was largely backward-looking, so markets will be hoping for some guidance in the minutes on whether the RBA has an easing bias. We assume it does but it has not been made explicit.?
"NZD risk will be focused on the GlobalDairyTrade auction (London/NY session). It looks as though the volume on offer will be lower compared to both the last auction and this time last year (-50% y/y), which should continue to support dairy prices."
"China Jan property prices data will be released at 12:30am Syd/10:30am local. There is broad based weakness in property markets: Dec’s -91.4% in new markets was a small improvement from -100% in Oct, mostly due to a few cities shifting from price declines to unchanged."
"After a non-committal Jan statement, the market is expecting the Bank of Korea to leave rates unchanged at 2.0% though risks are to the downside given global easing. We will also see the Bank Indonesia policy decision. Given BI tightened ahead of the wave of central bank easing, it should keep rates on hold at 7.75%. In Singapore we have Jan non-oil exports as well as the second estimate of GDP. India observes a partial holiday, enough for there to be no INR spot."
"In Europe, we have UK Jan CPI. The Westpac forecast is in line with market consensus at 0.4% y/y. The impact of oil price deflation is significant, though inflation elsewhere is benign."
"The Germany Feb ZEW survey of investor sentiment should show signs of expectations improving; the market consensus is 55.0 from 48.4."
"In the US, the NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey has been showing waning momentum, which looks likely to continue in Feb to fall to 8.5. The Feb NAHB housing market index will also be released, with the market expecting a tick up to 58 (% of homebuilders seeing improved business)."