18 Feb 2015
Greek surplus actually a deficit – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities comments on the ongoing greek debt debate, and further add that last week’s Greek Finance Ministry’s comments that the country had a Jan surplus of €367mn, has actually turned into a deficit of €200mn post last night’s revision.
Key Quotes
“Greek developments in the last day have been less positive than markets seem to be reading them and do confirm that the stakes in this brinksmanship have increased. Firstly, the hurdle for markets today is not any broad agreement, but merely whether the Greek request for a “loan extension” will be sufficient to get a Eurogroup meeting scheduled on Friday.”
“If yes, risk and EUR+ for now and we will have to wait for the marathon negotiations then.”
“But just getting the request is not enough, as Greece wants to ask for the funding without the conditionality, which is doubtful to be seen as sufficient. If there is no meeting on Friday, then Greek finances are reportedly in worse shape than expected and markets will worry about that.”
“As of last week, The Greek Finance Ministry thought it had a Jan surplus of €367mn, however, last night, they have revised that to a deficit of around €200mn. We warned of this early this month, and it means that if we have no imminent agreement, Greece will need to take extraordinary measures of dipping into other coffers to meet the coupon payment on Feb 24th, but is doubtful to have the funds to make a repayment to the IMF on March 6th.”
“Without an agreement on Friday, Greece has no market friendly means of raising that cash.”
Key Quotes
“Greek developments in the last day have been less positive than markets seem to be reading them and do confirm that the stakes in this brinksmanship have increased. Firstly, the hurdle for markets today is not any broad agreement, but merely whether the Greek request for a “loan extension” will be sufficient to get a Eurogroup meeting scheduled on Friday.”
“If yes, risk and EUR+ for now and we will have to wait for the marathon negotiations then.”
“But just getting the request is not enough, as Greece wants to ask for the funding without the conditionality, which is doubtful to be seen as sufficient. If there is no meeting on Friday, then Greek finances are reportedly in worse shape than expected and markets will worry about that.”
“As of last week, The Greek Finance Ministry thought it had a Jan surplus of €367mn, however, last night, they have revised that to a deficit of around €200mn. We warned of this early this month, and it means that if we have no imminent agreement, Greece will need to take extraordinary measures of dipping into other coffers to meet the coupon payment on Feb 24th, but is doubtful to have the funds to make a repayment to the IMF on March 6th.”
“Without an agreement on Friday, Greece has no market friendly means of raising that cash.”