18 Feb 2015
EUR broad downtrend still in place – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, comments that the recent three weeks has seen EUR gaining, which might signal that the single currency might retrace further higher, but it is unlikely to do so with the broader downtrend still in place.
Key Quotes
“EUR is down 0.2% trading within yesterday’s range and well within its one month 1.1098 to 1.1542 range, having failed to reach a fresh low since January 26th.”
“The weekly chart details that the last three weeks have seen the first three consecutive weeks of EUR gains in a year; if EUR breaks above the open from the week of January 23rd at 1.1563, it will be a clear signal that EUR is poised to retraced further and higher.”
“However our base case is that it fails to do so, keeping the broad downtrend in place.”
“We maintain our year‐end target of 1.05, looking for renewed EUR downside pressure as the Fed moves towards interest rate hikes.”
“EURUSD short‐term technicals: mixed—signals are failing to confirm each other and warn of an ongoing range bound environment.”
“Support lies at the 1.1320 with resistance at the recent high of 1.1449, however neither of these levels are particularly strong.”
Key Quotes
“EUR is down 0.2% trading within yesterday’s range and well within its one month 1.1098 to 1.1542 range, having failed to reach a fresh low since January 26th.”
“The weekly chart details that the last three weeks have seen the first three consecutive weeks of EUR gains in a year; if EUR breaks above the open from the week of January 23rd at 1.1563, it will be a clear signal that EUR is poised to retraced further and higher.”
“However our base case is that it fails to do so, keeping the broad downtrend in place.”
“We maintain our year‐end target of 1.05, looking for renewed EUR downside pressure as the Fed moves towards interest rate hikes.”
“EURUSD short‐term technicals: mixed—signals are failing to confirm each other and warn of an ongoing range bound environment.”
“Support lies at the 1.1320 with resistance at the recent high of 1.1449, however neither of these levels are particularly strong.”