20 Feb 2015
Japan Jan trade statistics confirms strong growth in real exports – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura reviews Japans’s trade statistics of January 2015, noting that higher than expected nominal exports led to a below consensus fall in the deficit.
Key Quotes
“According to Ministry of Finance (MOF) trade statistics, January 2015 nominal exports were +17.0% y-y while nominal imports were -9.0%, with exports above and imports below consensus (Bloomberg survey median) forecasts of +13.5% and -4.9%, respectively. This resulted in a trade deficit (original series) of ¥1,177.5bn and a seasonally adjusted deficit of ¥406.1bn, both of which were smaller than consensus estimates of ¥1,681.3bn and ¥598.1bn, respectively. The seasonally adjusted trade deficit also contracted from the previous month (¥620.7bn).”
“Looking ahead, we see a stronger impact from falling crude oil prices, and a clear trend toward a narrower trade deficit.”
“Real exports and real imports were +6.9% m-m and +5.1%, respectively, in January (price and seasonal adjustments by Nomura).”
“With exports continuing to increase, mainly on the impact from a stronger US economy, we think these latest figures suggest exports have entered a recovery phase.”
“Real exports in January were also up 7.5% on the Oct-Dec 2014 average. However, real imports into Japan also looked to have picked up steam owing to a recovery in domestic demand.”
Key Quotes
“According to Ministry of Finance (MOF) trade statistics, January 2015 nominal exports were +17.0% y-y while nominal imports were -9.0%, with exports above and imports below consensus (Bloomberg survey median) forecasts of +13.5% and -4.9%, respectively. This resulted in a trade deficit (original series) of ¥1,177.5bn and a seasonally adjusted deficit of ¥406.1bn, both of which were smaller than consensus estimates of ¥1,681.3bn and ¥598.1bn, respectively. The seasonally adjusted trade deficit also contracted from the previous month (¥620.7bn).”
“Looking ahead, we see a stronger impact from falling crude oil prices, and a clear trend toward a narrower trade deficit.”
“Real exports and real imports were +6.9% m-m and +5.1%, respectively, in January (price and seasonal adjustments by Nomura).”
“With exports continuing to increase, mainly on the impact from a stronger US economy, we think these latest figures suggest exports have entered a recovery phase.”
“Real exports in January were also up 7.5% on the Oct-Dec 2014 average. However, real imports into Japan also looked to have picked up steam owing to a recovery in domestic demand.”