20 Feb 2015
EUR weak as Greek headlines drive uncertainty – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, shares that EUR/USD is weak but contained well in its month long range, driven by Greek uncertainty, and in need of a catalyst – Greece or Fed.
Key Quotes
“EUR is down 0.4% into the open, having tested back below 1.1300 on headlines that a German bloc is willing to let Greece exit. However, the broad theme for EUR is: a backdrop of improving economic fundamentals being offset by ongoing uncertainty emanating from Greece and what we suspect are large EUR outlows combined with only minor changes on the outlook for Fed or ECB policy.”
“Accordingly EUR has been contained within its month long range of 1.1098 to 1.1542, lacking a catalyst to break it out. That catalyst is likely to come from either Greece or the USD side of the equation, most likely the Fed.”
“We expect EUR to drift lower, closing the year at 1.05.”
“EURUSD short‐term technicals: mixed—reflecting the range bound environment.”
“Support lies at the recent low of 1.1270 with resistance at the recent high of 1.1450.”
“The intraday daily ranges has dropped back to more traditional levels, averaging 90points over the last 10‐sessions, suggesting a less volatile environment is emerging.”
Key Quotes
“EUR is down 0.4% into the open, having tested back below 1.1300 on headlines that a German bloc is willing to let Greece exit. However, the broad theme for EUR is: a backdrop of improving economic fundamentals being offset by ongoing uncertainty emanating from Greece and what we suspect are large EUR outlows combined with only minor changes on the outlook for Fed or ECB policy.”
“Accordingly EUR has been contained within its month long range of 1.1098 to 1.1542, lacking a catalyst to break it out. That catalyst is likely to come from either Greece or the USD side of the equation, most likely the Fed.”
“We expect EUR to drift lower, closing the year at 1.05.”
“EURUSD short‐term technicals: mixed—reflecting the range bound environment.”
“Support lies at the recent low of 1.1270 with resistance at the recent high of 1.1450.”
“The intraday daily ranges has dropped back to more traditional levels, averaging 90points over the last 10‐sessions, suggesting a less volatile environment is emerging.”