4 Mar 2015
BOC’s Poloz expected to be dovish – MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at MarketPulse, notes that market expectations for a rate cut from the BoC are high, but the recent GDP release says otherwise.
Key Quotes
“Last time out Governor Poloz surprised the market by implementing an insurance premium -25bps cut. Up until a week ago, and before a surprise pause from the RBA this week, the market majority had assumed it was a slam-dunk that the BoC would be easing today.”
“Poloz reiterated that collapsing oil prices are a “net negative” and a setback for a Canadian economy trying to get back to full capacity and full employment.”
“Currently market consensus is expecting a “no” change from the BoC in a few hours, yesterday’s Q4 GDP numbers beat forecast and do not necessitate an immediate change to policy.”
“Nevertheless, the Central Bank is expected to be ‘dovish’ in its rhetoric.”
“The loonie sits atop of CAD$1.2500 compared to the CAD$1.2360-$1.2800 range traded since January’s cut.”
“With U.S yields having rallied strongly of late, the rate divergence argument between the Fed and the BoC is expected to continue supporting USD/CAD on pullbacks.”
“The market is looking for any signs that the BoC will express its favor for a lower loonie.”
Key Quotes
“Last time out Governor Poloz surprised the market by implementing an insurance premium -25bps cut. Up until a week ago, and before a surprise pause from the RBA this week, the market majority had assumed it was a slam-dunk that the BoC would be easing today.”
“Poloz reiterated that collapsing oil prices are a “net negative” and a setback for a Canadian economy trying to get back to full capacity and full employment.”
“Currently market consensus is expecting a “no” change from the BoC in a few hours, yesterday’s Q4 GDP numbers beat forecast and do not necessitate an immediate change to policy.”
“Nevertheless, the Central Bank is expected to be ‘dovish’ in its rhetoric.”
“The loonie sits atop of CAD$1.2500 compared to the CAD$1.2360-$1.2800 range traded since January’s cut.”
“With U.S yields having rallied strongly of late, the rate divergence argument between the Fed and the BoC is expected to continue supporting USD/CAD on pullbacks.”
“The market is looking for any signs that the BoC will express its favor for a lower loonie.”