4 Mar 2015
Markets are watching for Putin's next move?
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the third cease fire in Ukraine had a rocky start, but today the German foreign minister noted that tensions have calmed.
Key Quotes:
"Russia's pursuit of what is sometimes called a hybrid war has seen some success. It continues to occupy areas in Georgia and supports a separatist region in Moldova. It has annexed Crimea and has armed insurgents in east Ukraine and augmented them with irregular troops. Russia is successfully dismembering Ukraine's territorial integrity."
"Some want Europe and the US to have a stronger military response to Russia's actions, deriding sanctions."
"The fact of the matter is that the US and NATO have been extremely reluctant to challenge Russia in what Moscow calls its near-abroad".
"Assuming a rational actor, and given the success of the Putin's tactics, it seems reasonable to try to anticipate what he does next. For global investors whose portfolios could be impacted, activity around two cities can be monitored."
"The first one is in Ukraine itself. "
"The second city to watch is in Estonia; Narva."
"The key question is whether Putin is prepared to test his hybrid tactics on a NATO member. If so, Narva is a potential candidate."
"Europe and the US would likely respond to either of these scenarios with more sanctions."
"The point of this exercise is to think about what Russia does next. It assumes that Russia is not about to change its underlying strategy, and that its efforts to rebuild a sphere of influence is not over. These efforts will bring it into more confrontation with Europe and the United States. It has to be assumed that this is a long-term development. For investors with exposures to Eastern and Central Europe, it is worth considering Putin's next possible moves."
Key Quotes:
"Russia's pursuit of what is sometimes called a hybrid war has seen some success. It continues to occupy areas in Georgia and supports a separatist region in Moldova. It has annexed Crimea and has armed insurgents in east Ukraine and augmented them with irregular troops. Russia is successfully dismembering Ukraine's territorial integrity."
"Some want Europe and the US to have a stronger military response to Russia's actions, deriding sanctions."
"The fact of the matter is that the US and NATO have been extremely reluctant to challenge Russia in what Moscow calls its near-abroad".
"Assuming a rational actor, and given the success of the Putin's tactics, it seems reasonable to try to anticipate what he does next. For global investors whose portfolios could be impacted, activity around two cities can be monitored."
"The first one is in Ukraine itself. "
"The second city to watch is in Estonia; Narva."
"The key question is whether Putin is prepared to test his hybrid tactics on a NATO member. If so, Narva is a potential candidate."
"Europe and the US would likely respond to either of these scenarios with more sanctions."
"The point of this exercise is to think about what Russia does next. It assumes that Russia is not about to change its underlying strategy, and that its efforts to rebuild a sphere of influence is not over. These efforts will bring it into more confrontation with Europe and the United States. It has to be assumed that this is a long-term development. For investors with exposures to Eastern and Central Europe, it is worth considering Putin's next possible moves."