5 Mar 2015
Australian calendar busy again - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - The Australian calendar is busy again, with both retail sales and trade balance released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac.
Key Quotes
The Australian calendar is busy again, with both retail sales and trade balance released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Our forecast for Jan retail sales is 0.3%, slightly below the 0.4% consensus. There are risks to either side. The recent surge in electronic goods retailing, attributed in part to the iPhone 6, is likely to normalise at some stage. The fall in Dec consumer sentiment also presents downside risks. However, the weaker AUD should improve competitiveness of domestic merchants and lower petrol prices should also be supportive. Westpac is expecting the Jan trade balance to show a deficit of -AUD1.2bn, while the market median is for a print of -0.9bn. This should be driven by a 3% increase in imports while export earnings remain flat.
RBA deputy governor Lowe will be speaking on "Low Inflation in a World of Monetary Stimulus" at a conference at 12:30pm Syd/9:30am Sing/HK.
The Asia calendar is quiet. Philippines Feb CPI is due while all forecasts are for Bank Negara Malaysia to keep the overnight policy rate at 3.25%.
There is less interest in today’s ECB than there has been for many months, given that the ECB has already taken the big step of commencing large scale QE. The ECB will purchase EUR60bn of various bonds until at least Sep 2016. President Draghi should provide some more detail on this plan but otherwise there is limited fresh risk for EUR.
The Bank of England’s MPC meets but given that policy is comfortably on hold, there will be little to interest markets. The US calendar is limited to weekly jobless claims.
Key Quotes
The Australian calendar is busy again, with both retail sales and trade balance released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. Our forecast for Jan retail sales is 0.3%, slightly below the 0.4% consensus. There are risks to either side. The recent surge in electronic goods retailing, attributed in part to the iPhone 6, is likely to normalise at some stage. The fall in Dec consumer sentiment also presents downside risks. However, the weaker AUD should improve competitiveness of domestic merchants and lower petrol prices should also be supportive. Westpac is expecting the Jan trade balance to show a deficit of -AUD1.2bn, while the market median is for a print of -0.9bn. This should be driven by a 3% increase in imports while export earnings remain flat.
RBA deputy governor Lowe will be speaking on "Low Inflation in a World of Monetary Stimulus" at a conference at 12:30pm Syd/9:30am Sing/HK.
The Asia calendar is quiet. Philippines Feb CPI is due while all forecasts are for Bank Negara Malaysia to keep the overnight policy rate at 3.25%.
There is less interest in today’s ECB than there has been for many months, given that the ECB has already taken the big step of commencing large scale QE. The ECB will purchase EUR60bn of various bonds until at least Sep 2016. President Draghi should provide some more detail on this plan but otherwise there is limited fresh risk for EUR.
The Bank of England’s MPC meets but given that policy is comfortably on hold, there will be little to interest markets. The US calendar is limited to weekly jobless claims.