16 Jul 2013
Flash: Emerging market currencies to benefit - Societe Generale
FXstreet.com (London) - Kit Juckes, Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale said with major FX markets pretty quiet, and with bond yields slightly lower, there is a chance that the attempt to stabilise EM currencies will succeed, for a while at any rate.
"My instinctive bias when a central bank is pushed into tighter policy when its currency is under pressure, is scepticism. History suggests this doesn't often work, though it doesn't always fail as spectacularly as in the case of the pound in 1992." However, he added, with the US Treasury sell-off ‘correction mode' and markets generally in ‘summer mode', the timing of moves in Turkey and India doesn't look so bad.
"My instinctive bias when a central bank is pushed into tighter policy when its currency is under pressure, is scepticism. History suggests this doesn't often work, though it doesn't always fail as spectacularly as in the case of the pound in 1992." However, he added, with the US Treasury sell-off ‘correction mode' and markets generally in ‘summer mode', the timing of moves in Turkey and India doesn't look so bad.