6 Mar 2015
US NFP forecast at 228k, below consensus – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Team forecast a below consensus number for US payrolls, and further mention that the FOMC sees a 200K+ number suggestive of a healthy pace of employment growth.
Key Quotes
“Today’s main event is the US Employment Report (14:30 CET), featuring the nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. While the previous report showed substantial upward revisions to employment growth, it also revealed a slowdown to 257K in January from 423K in November.”
“The consensus expectation is a further deceleration in employment growth to 235K in February.”
“Our own econometric model, which takes into account the other labor market data for February that have been published earlier, is slightly below consensus with a 228K forecast.”
“In addition, our model forecasts a downward revision to the January figure. Note however, that payrolls are notoriously difficult to predict.”
“Nevertheless, in the last three months, nonfarm payroll growth has been stronger than suggested by other labor market data, which does suggest some downside risk to the consensus expectation.”
“The FOMC sees a 200K+ figure as a healthy pace of employment growth, but it is also willing to tolerate a figure between 150K and 200K, as long as various measures of unemployment continue their decline during the course of the year.”
Key Quotes
“Today’s main event is the US Employment Report (14:30 CET), featuring the nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. While the previous report showed substantial upward revisions to employment growth, it also revealed a slowdown to 257K in January from 423K in November.”
“The consensus expectation is a further deceleration in employment growth to 235K in February.”
“Our own econometric model, which takes into account the other labor market data for February that have been published earlier, is slightly below consensus with a 228K forecast.”
“In addition, our model forecasts a downward revision to the January figure. Note however, that payrolls are notoriously difficult to predict.”
“Nevertheless, in the last three months, nonfarm payroll growth has been stronger than suggested by other labor market data, which does suggest some downside risk to the consensus expectation.”
“The FOMC sees a 200K+ figure as a healthy pace of employment growth, but it is also willing to tolerate a figure between 150K and 200K, as long as various measures of unemployment continue their decline during the course of the year.”