6 Mar 2015
US NFP gain above 200k will keep June rate hike on the table – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, gives the outlook for EUR/USD for the week ahead, and further mentions that an above 200k payrolls number alongside earnings growth will keep expectations high for the June rate hike, and further maintain a neutral bias on EUR/USD.
Key Quotes
“The euro fell sharply yesterday ahead of today’s ECB meeting and some further selling materialised today in response to the strong message from the ECB that it would be able to purchase the required amount of sovereign debt in order to keep to its QE commitments.”
“President Draghi also confirmed that the ECB would purchase bonds yielding a negative interest rate down to -0.20%. This is likely to keep yields under downward pressure for now in the euro-zone and ensure continued weakness for the euro.”
“…the upward revision to GDP growth and inflation in 2016 is a clear signal from the ECB that their policies will work.”
“It remains a close call but an NFP gain over 200k with some further earnings growth will keep alive a June rate increase and help support the dollar. However, very cold weather and a port strike on the West Coast places some modest downside risks.”
“We suspect 1.1000 may prove hard work to breach and therefore have a neutral bias for the week ahead, especially given the declines over the past week.”
“EUR/USD – Neutral Bias – (1.0850-1.1250)”
Key Quotes
“The euro fell sharply yesterday ahead of today’s ECB meeting and some further selling materialised today in response to the strong message from the ECB that it would be able to purchase the required amount of sovereign debt in order to keep to its QE commitments.”
“President Draghi also confirmed that the ECB would purchase bonds yielding a negative interest rate down to -0.20%. This is likely to keep yields under downward pressure for now in the euro-zone and ensure continued weakness for the euro.”
“…the upward revision to GDP growth and inflation in 2016 is a clear signal from the ECB that their policies will work.”
“It remains a close call but an NFP gain over 200k with some further earnings growth will keep alive a June rate increase and help support the dollar. However, very cold weather and a port strike on the West Coast places some modest downside risks.”
“We suspect 1.1000 may prove hard work to breach and therefore have a neutral bias for the week ahead, especially given the declines over the past week.”
“EUR/USD – Neutral Bias – (1.0850-1.1250)”