8 Mar 2015
Specs pare back overall USD longs - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - According to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report, for the week ending Tuesday, March 3rd, speculative and CTA-type investors continued to pare back their overall exposure to the long USD trade, notes the FX Research Team at TD Securities.
Key Quotes
"CFTC data suggest that speculative and CTA-type investors continued to pare back their overall exposure to the long USD trade in the week through March 3rd—even as the USD extended its overall decline. In aggregate, the IMM’s net long USD position against the major currencies dropped to USD42.4bn, the lowest bet on the USD since the Christmas week and down from the peak bull position of USD49.0bn seen in mid-January."
"Speculative accounts trimmed net short EUR exposure for a fifth week, reducing their positions to –172.4k contracts (-177.7k last and down from a recent high point of –196.3k at the start of February). If specs are covering EUR shorts, the clear downward pressure on the EUR may be related to portfolio shifts rather than leveraged, directional positioning. With the ECB poised to start QE next week and the EUR itself falling to new cycle lows this week, spec short activity may (should) pick up."
"Investors did increase net short bets on the JPY slightly, reversing the recent trend towards reduced net exposure here as well; speculative JPY shorts rose to –52.5k contracts, a 5k contract increase from last week’s position which effectively represented the smallest bet against the JPY since late 2012. Net short GBP bets were boosted by a similar 5k contracts to –26.9k contracts. Net short CHF positioning was little changed on the week at –6k."
"Investors may be warming up a little more to the short CAD trade again; positioning has looked light relative to the sustained weakness in the CAD in the past few weeks. Net short CAD positions rose to –38.8k contracts this week, the biggest bet against the CAD in nearly a year. Positioning in the AUD and the NZD were little changed on the week at (-61.5k and –1.3k contracts respectively). Despite the softness in the MXN, speculative short positions continue to edge generally lower, with the net bet against the peso easing to –43.4k contracts, the smallest position here since early December."
Key Quotes
"CFTC data suggest that speculative and CTA-type investors continued to pare back their overall exposure to the long USD trade in the week through March 3rd—even as the USD extended its overall decline. In aggregate, the IMM’s net long USD position against the major currencies dropped to USD42.4bn, the lowest bet on the USD since the Christmas week and down from the peak bull position of USD49.0bn seen in mid-January."
"Speculative accounts trimmed net short EUR exposure for a fifth week, reducing their positions to –172.4k contracts (-177.7k last and down from a recent high point of –196.3k at the start of February). If specs are covering EUR shorts, the clear downward pressure on the EUR may be related to portfolio shifts rather than leveraged, directional positioning. With the ECB poised to start QE next week and the EUR itself falling to new cycle lows this week, spec short activity may (should) pick up."
"Investors did increase net short bets on the JPY slightly, reversing the recent trend towards reduced net exposure here as well; speculative JPY shorts rose to –52.5k contracts, a 5k contract increase from last week’s position which effectively represented the smallest bet against the JPY since late 2012. Net short GBP bets were boosted by a similar 5k contracts to –26.9k contracts. Net short CHF positioning was little changed on the week at –6k."
"Investors may be warming up a little more to the short CAD trade again; positioning has looked light relative to the sustained weakness in the CAD in the past few weeks. Net short CAD positions rose to –38.8k contracts this week, the biggest bet against the CAD in nearly a year. Positioning in the AUD and the NZD were little changed on the week at (-61.5k and –1.3k contracts respectively). Despite the softness in the MXN, speculative short positions continue to edge generally lower, with the net bet against the peso easing to –43.4k contracts, the smallest position here since early December."