10 Mar 2015
Expect no significant policy clues from Carney and McCafferty’s speech – Standard Bank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Standard Bank Research Team comments on today’s Governor Carney and McCafferty’s speech’s, noting that it is unlikely that either of them will give any significant clues about monetary policy.
Key Quotes
“There are a few speakers from the Bank of England today, led by Governor Carney who testifies to the House of Lords economic affairs committee. Another member, Ian McCafferty, speaks later in the day on the economic outlook. However, at this stage it seems unlikely that either will give any significant clues about policy.”
“McCafferty had been voting for rate hikes up until a few months ago. His partner in this, Weale, said recently that it was still touch-and-go between supporting rate stability and voting for higher rates.”
“We may see later today whether McCafferty is also close to voting for higher rates again. Even if he is, the bulk of the MPC still seems to be “patient” (to use the Fed’s wording) and Carney may well suggest this again today if he speaks on monetary policy issues.”
“Our base case is still that the first rate hike won’t be before Q4:15 but it may be politics (given the elections in May), not rates, that demands the attention of the markets over the next couple of months.”
Key Quotes
“There are a few speakers from the Bank of England today, led by Governor Carney who testifies to the House of Lords economic affairs committee. Another member, Ian McCafferty, speaks later in the day on the economic outlook. However, at this stage it seems unlikely that either will give any significant clues about policy.”
“McCafferty had been voting for rate hikes up until a few months ago. His partner in this, Weale, said recently that it was still touch-and-go between supporting rate stability and voting for higher rates.”
“We may see later today whether McCafferty is also close to voting for higher rates again. Even if he is, the bulk of the MPC still seems to be “patient” (to use the Fed’s wording) and Carney may well suggest this again today if he speaks on monetary policy issues.”
“Our base case is still that the first rate hike won’t be before Q4:15 but it may be politics (given the elections in May), not rates, that demands the attention of the markets over the next couple of months.”